The words of Axel Weber in fact solid game

Monetary policy, at the present time, is approximately at the level where it should be and I think that the discussion on a decline in the rate in Europe is premature. "This small sentence made yesterday by Axel Weber, President of the Bundesbank, in an interview with the Bloomberg Agency, will have had a strong impact on the market of State European. The rates of State bonds to 2 years strained by 10 basis points, the image of the German obligation, including the rate rose to 4,081. This movement was also noticeable on loans to 10 years: the German Bund stretched 6 points to 4,170.

The growth in the second quarter had disappointed some of the countries of the euro area, including the France. And the barometer of the IFO Institute testified to a degradation of the expectations of the German industrial. Worried, stakeholders have integrated these past few weeks, the idea of the rates on the part of the European Central Bank (ECB). The level of Euribor futures contracts indicated that stakeholders gave more than 50 probability for a relaxation of 25 basis points in the rate of refinancing in March.

The words of Axel Weber, in fact, solid game. "I don't wait for me to see inflation necessarily back with only low growth", he said. At the time, the rate of 3-month Euribor futures contracts themselves are relaxed yesterday, lowering up to 15 points from base with regard to the second half of 2009.

The shooting of members of the ECB in the European press was, it is true, especially fed. "If the Central Bank had decided to boost the economy by lowering interest rates, it would have to consequence increase inflation." Are we certain that this is what we want ", and questioned Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, to the Italian press to justify the decision of the ECB in July.

"The main and the most serious concern is that the current prolonged period of high inflation can potentially affect the behaviour of price fixing and wages and the short and medium term inflation expectations, in fact a wage-price spiral", supported the Vice-President of the ECB, Lucas Papademos, while it expects to see growth start in the fourth quarter. Such a scenario would affect both growth and the purchasing power of households. "This will require If this materializes a stronger degree of monetary tightening", he continued.

Technical rebound of the euro

Meanwhile, Klaus Liebscher, the Governor of the Austrian Central Bank, found that "against inflation, Editor's note vigilance was needed more than ever".

But the news of the day were rather encouraging on this front. Preliminary figures for inflation in Germany reflect an increase of 3.3 on an annual basis this month, after 3.5 in July. Economists projected, on average, an increase of 3.4. But it does. Before the strength of the words of the Chief Economist of the ECB, Jürgen Stark, to the German newspaper "Süddeutsche Zeitung", Ciaran O'Hagan, Société Générale, suspected the ECB to have access to specific wage statistics which will be revealed only after the September meeting. Jürgen Stark believes that the risk of inflation in the medium term worsened and warned against an increase in wages.

In this context, the euro offered a technical rebound yesterday. After falling to 1,4571 dollar Tuesday at the meeting, under the influence of a worrying IFO index, the single currency exchanged in 1,4714 dollar later in the day. His rise was interrupted however by the publication of a number of orders of durable goods higher than the expectations of economists in the United States.