It is exceptionally mobilized last Sunday

The large wheel of the alternation is shaking again. At the present stage, it only concerns the regional level. The stunning setbacks suffered by the right last Sunday suggests a complete reversal of the situation. On the evening of the second round, the Government majority may not keep more than one-third of metropolitan areas. Run-off elections is favourable to the left in seven regions led by the right (Brittany, Burgundy, Franche-Comté, Languedoc-Roussillon, Picardie, Poitou-Charentes, Rhône-Alpes), while none of its presidencies are highly threatened.

The wind of hostility to the governess right that blew 21 March is so strong that a reversal of the trend in the second round is very likely. In such circumstances, the general rule is rather that of amplification. This is what suggest the surveys of voting intentions between two towers. In Aquitaine as in Ile-de-France, Languedoc-Roussillon, d'Azur and Rhône-Alpes, the left is widely given winner, everywhere, a score above the total of votes left and extreme left in the first round. In Ile-de-France, a significant fraction of the electorate UDF does not intend to refer on the list headed by the spokesperson of the Government. In most regions where the extreme right remains on track, only a minority of voters in the FN plans to run to the rescue of the right.

In the second round of these regional, as in the first, the left is more United than the right. The opposition has failed to gather its forces in only two regions, while the majority remains divided in four of them. This asymmetry is more striking still politically. Invigorated, the components of the former "plural left" are found in warm unit banquets. Conversely, people rivalries and strategic antagonisms undermine the right. "New ambitions" of Nicolas Sarkozy and Jean-Louis Debré opposed to humanity in Jean-Pierre Raffarin promised continuity.

Beyond its immediate consequences, the political landscape designed by the regional election looks promising for the left in General and the PS in particular. If the sanction of the Raffarin Government was foreseeable, it was less clear that this protest vote benefits both the Socialists. There is no doubt here take into account the utilitarianism of an electorate disillusioned but calculator. After all, the PS ballot was hampered most UMP. It was used by many voters anxious to weaken a power considered as unfair and threatening the social acquis. The Socialist vote is a vote of protection for a popular electorate living in self-defence. The argument developed by some leaders of the UMP, which the French have expressed their "impatience" with a rhythm of reforms deemed too slow is not a striking electoral effectiveness.

The reunion between the left and a fraction of the popular media is a major teaching: 50 of the employees and 49 of workers voted left on 21 March according to TNS-Sofres (1). In these self-employed categories, the PS performed a spectacular recovery at redépasser, according to some surveys, the FN in the labour environment. The parliamentary right remains extreme weakness in labour of execution a structural electoral handicap for it. It is crushed by the parliamentary left in the lowest income bracket (28 versus 41), among non-graduates (28 versus 35) or still unemployed (26 against 52). The sociological narrowness of the right, squeezed between a FN that retains a solid working base and a new influential left among the employees, especially the public sector, has worsened.

The left also scored valuable points in the young electorate. It is exceptionally mobilized last Sunday. To prevent a re-enactment on April 21, 2002 has led many young people to a "useful vote" for the parliamentary left. It gets its best score (48 according to TNS-Sofres) age 18-24.

The new partisan configuration is a third factor that plays to the left. The underperformance of the extreme left him robbing a spine of the foot, while the establishment of the national Front, even if it progresses, remains a ball to the right. In addition, the PS found Sunday in the least concerned allies for their own future. FCP is still on the decline, as evidenced by its cantonal results, but it has not disappeared from the electoral scene. The Greens, too, saw the electorate validate a strategy in variable geometry. All this does not guarantee a bright future to the left, but no doubt Announces big concerns for the right.