Above all managers portfolios are full of cash

If a technical correction of 5 to 10 is likely, the markets should continue their progress in the coming months, according to the strategist of the Société Générale.

Investors are two important appointments: the release of the Fed and the G20 in Pittsburgh. Do how you interpret the text yesterday And what will be the impact of the g-20

In its release, the Fed is the recovery of the economy. It confirms that the evidence of improvement is real. By now its interest rate close to 0, it indicates that it will continue its support to the economy and the financial sphere. The text does not great revolution, which has the effect of reassuring the markets. When there is confirmation of the recovery, should see more indications about crisis exit strategies. Central banks have implemented unconventional policies to "pension" toxic assets and will now explain how this will end. On the G20, investors should bring attention to statements against protectionism. After the recent case of tires between China and the United States, the markets have become much more nervous about the risk of protectionism, which could undermine global growth. Then, the operators will watch with interest the pane control: there will be no sustainable restoration of confidence without clear regulation.

The rally shares can still continue

It would be logical that there be a technical correction, in view of the spectacular progress of markets: the CAC 40, for example, has advanced approximately 52 since March. This consolidation should take place by the end of the year, but should not exceed 5 to 10, which amount temporarily index Parisian autour smics points. The correction could have several origins, but one of the key risks is influenza A. If the probability of a real pandemic remains low, this threat may create volatility and encourage outlets for profit. Then, the argument of low high market prices no longer warrants the rally: US stocks remain below their recovery of very long period (with a gap of 10 to 15), but they are more extremely décotées. However, a consolidation must be viewed more as an opportunity to strengthen equity. The trend is still bullish over the next eight or nine months.

Large awards have not yet found their levels from before Lehman Brothers. Should they do

In contrast to the "spreads" of business, volatility and the dollar obligations, they have, indeed, not recovered the pre-Lehman levels. Our central scenario is a continuation of the growth of the indices to the level of about a year ago, despite a likely point correction. We have an objective 4.100 points on the CAC 40 and 1,200 points on the S & P 500 by June 2010. The end of the year and the beginning of 2010 should make for a good surprise on the macroeconomic front, with statistics of base effects. Above all, managers portfolios are full of cash. There is today once and a half more than cash that there was at the height of the crisis of 2002! The process of reallocation of cash has already begun: $ 15 billion come every month in mutual funds shares, managed in the United States. The trend is expected even to accelerate, to the extent the performance of those assets should remain zero in the near future, while central banks will keep close rates of 0. When implied volatility at 1 month, measured by the VIX, drops below 30, we see empirically acceleration of capital inflows in American funds.

Can the recent appreciation of the euro be a drag on the markets of the old Continent Which regions and which sectors do you

We have no geographical bet strong: the large developed places display performance converted into roughly similar euros since the beginning of the year. For the time being, I have not heard of large European companies complaining about the rise of the single currency. Especially as, even though the dollar has lost about 15 percent since March, he returned to the level of a year ago. On the areas, we have a preference for those offering high yields as services to communities and telecoms, and more, are overdue.