Inflation was contained within 2 and the debt to 38 in 2005

Sunday, in the second round of the presidential election, Peruvians will have to decide between a candidate of left... and a left candidate. On the one hand, the veteran nationalist Ollanta Humala, came to head in the first round with 30 of the vote, novice in politics. On the other, Alan Garcia, supported by the Social Democrat party Apra, a former President whose previous mandate, between 1985 and 1990, ended hyperinflation and deadly clashes with Maoist Shining Path guerrillas. For two weeks, all polls give the favourite with 10 to 20 points ahead. But in diplomatic circles, State of other investigations, giving only a difference of 4 between the two adversaries. Analysts, in addition, the importance of "hidden voting", which should, a priori, take advantage to Humala.

Many Peruvians, explained this week the Ambassador of the Peru in France, Francisco Miro Quesada, believe that Alan Garcia has changed and that the economic chaos that it happen again. On the contrary, others find that he has kept his style "populist" "caudillo".

"The new President will find into the coffers of the Central Bank more than 13 billion of reserves." "A temptation to which he shall not succumb", warns the Ambassador.

Another sensitive point: Garcia, accused of corruption and violation of the human rights under the regime of dictator Fujimori, left the country for nine years and only returned after its supposed harm limitation. But it is now a guarantor of democracy.

Ollanta Humala, for its part, said "neither right nor left but to bottom", even though he is embarrassed by his family clearly positioned on the far right statements. It is the subject of an investigation for violations of human rights when he was involved in the fight against the shining path. Favourable to the renegotiation of the Treaty of free trade recently signed with the United States and the nationalizations, it collects the votes of many disappointed of the liberal model of the outgoing President, Alejandro Toledo.

Under the chairmanship of the latter, elected in 2001 after the removal of Alberto Fujimori, the Peru, second world producer of silver and the third of zinc, has experienced an average growth of 5 per year (6.6 last year). Inflation was contained within 2 and the debt to 38 in 2005. But this orthodoxy did not diminish the inequalities in the country, where the poverty rate exceeds 50.

"Subtle dictatorship."

Claiming his admiration for Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who defended it vigorously these days by fall in the polls, Ollanta Humala intends to convene a constituent Assembly and promises to renegotiate mining contracts, affolant scholarship and the elites of Lima. The program is "neither precise nor practical", recognizes Francisco Quesada, which underlines that to nationalize the Peru sectors are not Legion. Number of detractors fear however, if he does, the appearance of a "subtle dictatorship", said the Ambassador, not without adding that the new President, whatever it is, is not an absolute majority in the Congress renewed in April. That will restrict its room for manoeuvre, but also its ability to nuisance...